UBS Global Wealth Management foresees a possibility of an extended selloff in government debt that could push the benchmark 10-year yield up to a level it hasn't finished at since October 2023. “Our ...

The Government debt binge has slowed in the latest month, adding only $2B in new debt for January. Click to read.

You can see a normal yield curve in the chart below. In a healthy bond market long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates. In other words, the yield curve slopes up. When this is the ...

An inversion of the yield curve—a chart plotting returns on debt of various maturities—historically has been a sign that a recession is on the way.

The yield curve has preceded most US recessions since World War II, giving it a reputation as a reliable leading economic indicator. Fisher Investments agrees it is useful, yet many misinterpret ...

Note in this chart that, for over forty years, the recessions come after the 3Mo/10Yr yield curve has resolved so that long money resumes its rightful position yielding a higher rate: Obviously ...

That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...

The Treasury yield curve could flatten in the wake of Trump’s weekend tariff announcements, ING said.

This means some place too much weight on the fundamentals regardless of price action and charts. In contrast ... is checked.

The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future. An inverted yield curve occurs when ...

See the chart below from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that shows how the yield curve dipped below zero prior to a recession. The RTSR, developed by Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm ...